US GDP Q4 2023
  • Q3 was +3.2% annualized
  • Personal consumption +1.0% vs +1.4% 2nd reading
  • Core PCE prices +4.4% vs +4.3% expected
  • PCE prices +3.7% vs +3.7% 2nd reading
  • GDP final sales +3.7% vs +1.2% 2nd reading
  • Corporate profits after tax -2.7% vs +0.8% in Q4
  • Consumer spending on durables -1.3% vs -1.8% 2nd reading

The consumer spending numbers are a disappointment and highlights that consumers might be less of a driver of inflation than thought. That said, we're talking about data from Oct-Dec here so it doesn't tell us much about the current consumer or economy.

Percentage point changes:

  • Inventories pp +1.47 pp vs +1.47 pp in 2nd reading
  • Net trade pp +0.42 vs +0.46 pp in 2nd reading
  • Government spending +0.65 pp vs +0.63 pp in 2nd reading
  • Goods -0.01 vs -0.13 pp in 2nd reading
  • Services +0.72 vs +1.06 pp in 2nd reading