The US dollar has declined for three consecutive days against the euro and the yen, but it’s bouncing today.

Today, EUR/USD and USD/JPY have both retraced more than 38.2% of the three day moves.



Both pairs had a nasty whipsaw on Tuesday but touched fresh extremes today before turning around.

USDJPY intraday


What’s the better bet if you’re a US dollar bull?

Technically, EUR/USD is closer to forming a bearish outside day on a close below 1.2480 and in the longer-term picture, it might not be as overshold (or overbought in the case of USD/JPY).

The TLTRO takeup today was soft and it increases that chance of sovereign QE while in Japan, all the bad news for the yen is priced in.