Bloomberg with the article titles:

Trading Indicator With 100% Win Rate Signals Sell Long Bonds Now

Sheesh, ....

money shut up

The Bloomberg piece is gated but if you can access it here is the link:

If you can't access it, here is the gist:

  • A technical trading strategy with a perfect trading record this year is signaling that it’s time to sell long-maturity Treasuries after a rally last week.
  • BlackRock Inc.’s $51 billion bond exchange-traded fund tracking Treasuries due in more than 20 years (TLT) surged on Friday through what technical strategists call the “trading envelope,” a breakout that suggests the fund was overbought. The move triggered a sell signal in a strategy based on the indicator, which calls for traders to unload the security when it reaches overbought conditions and to buy when it is deemed to be oversold.
  • The “moving-average envelopes” strategy has generated three previous signals this year — in January, February and April — and all turned a profit. It has returned roughly 18% in 2024, the best among more than 20 strategies using technical indicators tracked by Bloomberg.

Moving average envelope, eh? Kill me now. OK, it'll probably do OK in a range sort of market. Just gotta wear the drawdowns and pray its not a real breakout.

Here's a quickie I drew up on the EUR/USD daily, 1% band around a 20 day MA. You can have a play yourself here at our chart app, free

Trading anything is, of course, at your own risk.

eurusd ma envelope 18 June 2024 2