Wilkins on growth

  • Clouds over trade disputes could clear, which would be an upside risk to the Canadian and global economies
  • We think economy is on track relative to April view
  • Asked if language around the rate decision was an attempt to push back against expectations of a cut in the market, she said what's important is what underpinned the decision

The BOC's forecast is below the 1.5% consensus. The data since the start of the year has been decidedly strong and Q1 numbers are due tomorrow with the consensus for the quarter at +0.7% annualized compared to the BOC forecast of +0.3%. The second quarter is seen at 2.1% compared to the BOC view of 1.3%.

It's tough to understand why the BOC isn't hinting at better growth.


  • Financial conditions have eased since the start of the year
  • We expect economy to gain some speed throughout the year
  • We are in a situation of modest excess supply
  • Made sense last Oct to get a little bit closer to neutral, now have modest excess supply
  • You never want to discount the yield curve
  • We're in a situation of modest excess supply
  • Canadian rates are still accommodative