A piece in the Australian Financial Review of note ahead of today's RBA policy decision.

The article is written by Gareth Aird, head of Australian economics at the Commonwealth Bank.

Link here (may be gated):

Why this lockdown exit will be worse than you think

In very, very brief:

  • the medium-term prospects for Australia look very good
  • But the near-term outlook is bleak, as extended lockdowns in NSW and Victoria cripple economic activity.
  • Australia's two largest states ... these extended lockdowns ... carry large economic and social consequences
  • We forecast the Australian economy will contract by a whopping 4.5 per cent in the September quarter. This massive loss of production will be accompanied by a huge fall in jobs.

Much more at the article, linked above.


I posted links to RBA previews earlier: