We know know where Mester's dot is

Mester is a vote next year and said she sees the conditions for a hike in 2022. Of course that could certainly change but we know she's one of those dots now.

Dot plot

Other comments:

  • Inflation risks on the upside exceed those on the negative
  • Sees 5.5% GDP growth this year
  • Sees 3.75-4.0% GDP growth in the US next year
  • Inflation will be a little more than 2% in the next years
  • Supports November taper that concludes in H1
  • After liftoff, we'll need accommodative policy for a little while
  • Sees unemployment around 4.75% at the end of this year and 4.0% at the end of 2022

GDP forecasts are notable, they've been coming down in the last month or two on supply chain issues.