Yellen at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (live link here: The Economic Outlook and Conduct of Monetary Policy)
- Says unwise, risky, to allow US economy to run persistently 'hot'
- Says 'prudent' to adjust stance of monetary policy gradually
- Determining how best to adjust rates to foster strong job growth, low inflation won't be easy
- Says labor utilization close to estimated long-run level
- Inflation likely to reach fed's 2-pct goal over next couple of years
(barring major swings in the value of dollar)
- Expects further strengthening of labor market in coming months
- Fed policy is not behind the curve
- Simple monetary policy rules, like the Taylor rule, provide useful guidance, but can be problematic
- Says surge in inflation from suddenly overheating job market unlikely
- Stance of monetary policy remains modestly accommodative
- Downward pressure of fed's balance sheet on rates is expected to decline
- Fiscal policy may affect outlook, rate path, but uncertainties remain
Headlines via Reuters, bolding mine
The full (and very long) text of here prepared speech is here:
Chair Janet L. Yellen
At the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, Stanford University, Stanford, California
January 19, 2017
The Economic Outlook and the Conduct of Monetary Policy
So, is Yellen more or less hawkish than expected. I reckon you could argue either way ... I am erring on the side she is a little less hawkish, which is usually a pretty safe way to view Yellen's speeches, comments etc.
Some Federal Reserve officials (regional presidents, governors etc.) are hot to trot for 3 rate hikes in 2017. I don't think Yellen is. And I don't think we see 3.
IMO (and you know what they say about opinions)
