A couple of brief bank previews of the Federal Open Market Committee on December 11


  • No change to policy is expected
  • target range for the Fed Funds Rate to be maintained at 1.50-1.75%
  • seems little reason for Powell to change his recent message that rates are likely to be left unchanged for a while to come
  • Nevertheless, there will be scrutiny of FOMC members' updated economic projections and dot-plots of the expected path of rates, with the latter likely to highlight again the Committee's bi-directional split


  • Fed Funds rate unchanged
  • Fed is confident that current policy settings are at an appropriate level to lift US inflation back towards target. We doubt there has been any material reassessment of this view since the October meeting.
  • Downside economic risks have eased somewhat and the labour market remains strong.
  • inflation remains subdued.


  • We expect no change to FOMC policy or rhetoric.
  • Chair Powell is likely to reiterate that the economy remains stable despite elevated uncertainties, while suggesting that policy rates are now at an appropriate level.
  • we expect him to emphasise the need for a material change in the outlook to warrant any further easing.



The FOMC meeting this week - preview (spoiler - the "on-hold" bias is quite strong)