A brief look at the NZD and what could impact it from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand this week, from Westpac:

NZD/USD Outlook

Week ahead:

  • NZD/USD finally ran out of steam at 0.7550.
  • Speculative longs are at a five year high - very stretched.
  • In addition, we have the RBNZ MPS this Thursday, which could pour some cold water over the kiwi.
  • Economic data since the previous MPS argues for a lower OCR track, and the elevated NZD could see the RBNZ ramp up its currency warning.
  • The immediate (technically derived) downside target is 0.7350, with a break below possible if the RBNZ is dovish enough.

Three months ahead:

  • Our medium term outlook for NZD/USD is largely dependant on the outlook for the US dollar. A persistent rebound in the US dollar by year end is needed to pull NZD/ USD back to the 0.69 area. On that score, last week's jobs data-inspired USD bounce is encouraging