The BOJ conclude their two-day August meeting today and will announce the results.

There is no scheduled time for a BOJ announcement after their policy board meeting, announcements are made when the BOJ meeting finishes. There is, however, a window during which we can expect it, 0230 to 0400GMT has been about right recently. The more there is for discussion and debate at a meeting, the later the announcement will come. While there is no change in policy expected at all today, there is plenty for discussion at the meeting re the future course of policy and if/when there will be more easing. This is looking increasingly likely (to me) as the Japanese economy has slowed.

I am expecting the regular press conference following from Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kuroda at 0630GMT … but I see some have this listed as ‘tentative and some not at all. maybe Mike will get a welcome break from wash-and-repeat Kuroda comments today?

What can we expect today from the BOJ? If you want to stop reading here …. no change in policy is expected to be announced. Thank-you and goodbye.

If you’ve got a bit more time…

The question of further BOJ easing ….

  • The latest Bloomberg survey show market expectations for BOJ easing have fallen slightly further,
  • The latest is the survey from 30 July to 1 August:
  • None of those surveyed expect the BOJ to ease at the meetings in August and September (that’s unchanged from the previous survey)
  • But, get this … in the previous survey 12 of 34 (35%) expected the BOJ to ease at either of the two meetings in October … but now its 9 only (26%) that expect easeing October (1 says at the 7 October meeting and 8 saying on 31 October)
  • This compares to early June, where the majority (55%) of those surveyed expected the Bank to ease by end-October.

I am surprised by this … I thought further easing was getting more likely … but it seems I am out of step.

I think we’ll get a clue from the meeting today in terms of the timing of the announcement … like I said above, the later it comes the more discussion there has been. This is beginning to enter the realm of tea-leaf reading, though. Let’s see what the announcement and accompanying statement brings.