• now forecasting the RBNZ to lift the OCR by 50bp at both the April and May RBNZ meetings
  • OCR to now peak at 3.5% rather than 3% in April 2023
  • Uncertainty is huge, but the direction of risk for inflation is absolutely clear.
  • We are now forecasting CPI inflation to peak at 7.4% in Q2 due to higher oil prices, dairy prices, and pricing intentions.
  • The RBNZ will have to respond to that, despite very real downside growth risks.

13 April and 4 May are the next two meetings of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand:

rbnz meetings 2022