An unchanged call for the Reserve Bank of Australia even after the better inflation figures earlier:


  • We still expect a rate rise from the RBA in July despite the deceleration of monthly inflation (though the risk of a pause increases).
  • CPI ex volatile items and holidays barely moved in May.
  • Strong jobs momentum may also sway the RBA’s decision towards a rise.

ANZ are forecasting a +25bp cash rate hike. The RBA meet on July 4.

Australia inflation rba forecast 28 June 2023