A note from Friday from Bank of America strategy desk, on the Fed.

Says the market has gotten ahead of itself expecting five rate cuts next year from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and even more (6) from the European Central Bank. BoA says expectations need to be tempered due to:

  • Core inflation remains high and stickier than headline inflation

and the risk of higher/stickier headline inflation early into 2024 as base effects from energy prices fade.

On Europe:

  • disinflation in the Eurozone at the current rate could support rate cuts beginning in March

And where the risk is:

  • “In any case, given aggressive market pricing, we see the balance of risks for central banks doing less next year, particularly in a soft landing scenario”


I posted earlier from BoA economists:

Lagarde Powell party meme