Powell QA
  • It is a meaningful change to no longer say we anticipate more firming of policy
  • My own assessment is that we will have continued growth
  • Staff sees a mild recession, it's independent at last meeting and was broadly similar today
  • A decision on a pause was not made today, we will decide on June in June
  • We won't have to raise rates quite as high due to banking stresses
  • The assessment about hiking in the future will be ongoing
  • Senior loan officer survey consistent with other data, broadly consistent with a tightening of lending standards
  • Real rates are around 2%, so policy is tight
  • Feed 'a few months' of data showing that Fed moves have been correct
  • We're possibly at a sufficiently restrictive level, or may not be far off
  • We think we will need to stay at this rate for awhile
  • "I continue to think that it’s possible…that this time is really different" on avoiding a recession
  • We have a view that inflation is going to come down 'not so quickly'
  • Non-housing services inflation hasn't moved much
  • We shouldn't even be talking about a world where the US doesn't pay its bills

The stock market liked when Powell spelled out that the change to the statement was 'meaningful' even if he also outlined that decisions would be taken meeting-by-meeting. At this point, it will take a handful of strong data points and a concerted push-back from FOMC officials to move the market off 'no change' at the June 14 meeting.

The market moves in the press conference so far have been modest.