Apparently the rally in bitcoin is "different this time"

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: Cryptocurrency

Scanning through some of the analyst notes on the rally in the crypto.

Forgive me if I am sceptical. OK, I know the BTC beliebers will not forgive me, but here goes.

The 'reasons' for the rally:
  • the gold market is in control of the BTC price - ie. higher gold price means higher BTC price

Look, as reasons go this one is probably borderline acceptable. One of the factors behind the surging gold price is low yields brought on by super-accommodative central bank policy. Everything (I generalise, but you know what I mean) is going up, why not crypto?

  • what are explained as 'fundamental' factors help explain the run higher in price:  SegWit adoption, high hash rate, search trends on Google, strength of current holders

As reasons go I am going to let the first three go, but that last one is worth being aware of. If you want to understand the price dynamics of crypto trade go and dig out your old, old books on financial market price analysis. Back from when stock markets were the largely unregulated wild west. Seriously, crypto is a frontier trading environment. Strong hands feasting on weak hands. Understand and accept this and get with the strength.

  • technicals - 12,000 was a strong resistance, its broken, as of now there has been no firm price rejection and the next resistance is 13,800 or thereabouts. Bulls are in control (are circular comment that one).  

I am not a favourite amongst the technical analysis people. I don't buy into much of it. Nevertheless where t/a can be of use is in the wild west, if you use it to help understand how strong hands are playing with the weaker. Do your own technical analysis though. 

  • And, the 'its different this time' argument …. unlike 2017 & 2019, BTC current price drivers are all relating to its underlying strength

Yeah, no. 

Scanning through some of the analyst notes on the rally in the crypto.

OK, back to the Beliebers. One of my faves:






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