ANZ analyst Richard Yetsenga is saying that investors are too complacent in their views that interest rates will stay down for long time to come.

Yetsenga argues there is evidence the world economy is improving:

  • Says that globally the share of PMIs above 50 is approaching pre-crisis levels
  • US capacity use is nearing pre-crisis levels too
  • The OECD’s leading indicator has turned higher, continuing its post-2011 advance

and that central banks will therefore hike sooner than the markets expects (he notes the Fed has so far given no indication it is planning a rate rise).

Yetsenga particularly likes the OECD leading indicator, saying it is designed to pick early signals of improvement in the business cycle.

anz 24 June 2014 oecd indicator and us bonds

More at FastFT (gated)