The Labour market report from Australia coming up on Thursday 21 February 2019
- Employment Change: K expected 15.0K, prior 21.6K
- Unemployment Rate: % expected 5.0%, prior 5.0%
- Full Time Employment Change: K prior was -3K
- Part Time Employment Change: K prior was 24.6K
- Participation Rate: % expected 65.6%, prior was 65.6%
The thing about employment data is that it is generally accepted as a lagging indicator 9for the economy). Other data is showing a few wobbles, but jobs growth is ticking along doing OK.
Another preview, this via ANZ:
- After a strong Q4 where employment rose at a monthly rate of just under 30k, we are looking for a more modest rise of 15k.
- A variety of leading indicators have slowed, but they continue to point to moderate growth in employment.
- We expect unemployment to remain steady at 5%.
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via NAB:
- expecting a soft outcome
- +10k in January
- Softer SEEK Job Ads and internal data point to a larger than usual seasonal fall in January
- A number of monthly data have been impacted by unusual volatility in December and January. We see that as likely to be the case in January Jobs and would caution at over-interpreting January's data
- NAB expects the underlying trend is for employment growth to soften a touch
- The NAB Survey Employment Index suggests trend employment will hold up … enough to put some slight downward pressure on unemployment
- … our central forecast is that it will stay at 5.0% (to 1 decimal place)
