Some comments this morning on the NZD/USD and NZD/AUD from BNZ (bolding mine):

  • Fair amount of support for NZD/USD ahead of 0.7700, with attempts to push below 0.7750 over the past few days failing rather quickly
  • Tonight’s US labour market reports, if strong, seem the only likely catalyst for a dip below 0.7700 ahead of a Fonterra announcement next week, and the RBNZ on Thursday
  • We mark initial support at 0.7730, and resistance at 0.7840

On the crosses, the inability of AUD to rally substantially has kept upward pressure on NZD/AUD

  • We see important resistance at 0.9310, which caps the downtrend over 2014. If that breaks, we may see a quick trip to 0.9400.
  • While our forecasts envisage a return to below 0.90, we suspect this will be difficult before early 2015. We would need to see both Fonterra downgrade its payout forecast, and the RBNZ to be remarkably downbeat on its rates outlook next week to see a sharp correction in the cross before year-end.