This from Capital Economics on their analysis of China's most recent GDP data

Capital Economics is an independent researcher; for China they use their in-house "China Activity Proxy" (or CAP), a combination of data including:

  • electricity usage,
  • seaport cargoes,
  • floor space under construction
  • passenger & freight traffic

They use these to gauge activity across the economy.

Capital Economics said growth in China has picked up strongly:

  • The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth accelerated for a ninth consecutive month in December to the fastest in more than three years
  • For the first time since 2011, our estimate of growth is no weaker than that shown by the official GDP data
  • But we don't think this strength will be sustained
  • Stepping back, at 6.8% the economy is now expanding faster than is sustainable (we put trend growth at around 4½~5%). With policy support now being withdrawn, growth is set to peak soon.


We got the data last week:

  • China Q4 GDP: 6.8% y/y (expected 6.7%, prior 6.7%)
  • China Dec. data: Industrial Prodn: 6.0% m/m (exp. 6.1%), Retail sales 10.9% m/m (exp 10.7%)
  • China data recap: Economy "propelled by robust consumption"
  • China 2016 power output up 4.5% y/y - Stats bureau

But not without some doubts on the veracity:

  • If you have any doubt about China's economic data, let this put your mind at rest