Goldman says employment could drop
I've been keeping a close eye on estimates for Friday's non-farm payrolls report. The consensus started out at +2m jobs but it's now slipped to +1.5m and there are a handful of estimates that are flat and negative.
Goldman Sachs is out with a +1.0m estimate today but also had this to say:
"Our trackers suggest that current household employment has fallen by roughly one million since the June survey week, and that as of July 15 the unemployment rate had risen back up to 11.5% after falling to 10.5% in late June (vs. 11.1% in the June survey)."
Christophe Barraud highlighted some of the same negative impulses in the real-time data.