A window into likely business expenditure capex in coming months, 6 to 9 months out

Japan Core Machinery Orders for June come in at -8.8% m/m … a huge miss for the admittedly volatile data point

  • expected -1.0% m/m, prior -3.7%

and at +0.3% y/y … and ditto for the big miss

  • expected +10.5% y/y, prior +16.5%

Wow, that is a very poor result indeed. Down large on the month comes after a big (but not as much as this) drop in May also. The fall is the fastest since December of 2017 (ie for 6 months, but Cabinet Office seemingly feels it incumbent upon them to point this out. Srsy, its cool, chill dudes)

More:

  • government cuts machinery orders assessment
  • says some pause in recovery of machinery orders
  • July to September machinery orders seen at -0.3% q/q

At the same time, money stock data for July

  • M2 is +2.6% vs. expected 3.1%, prior 3.2%
  • M3 is +3.0% vs. expected 2.7%, prior 2.7%