Coming up from Japan at 2350GMT:

Trade balance for April

  • expected Y 232.7bn surplus, prior +527bn Y
  • Adjusted trade balance expected Y -37.5bn, prior Y -177.8bn
  • exports expected -1.6% y/y, prior -2.4%
  • import expected +4.5% y/y, prior +1.2%

Core machine orders for March

  • expected 0.0%, prior 1.8%
  • expected -3.4% y/y, prior -5.4%

On trade, the effects of the US-China trade war have been, and continue to be, negative for Japanese exports. A further decline is expected in the data for April. On the imports side of the equation, these showed a very poor result in Q1 (in the GDP report out on Monday). Imports are expected to show sings of recovering in Q2, April data is seen higher. Domestic demand in Q1 fell, if the April import number comes in on expectations its a positive sign for domestic demand.

Business capex though ….

The other set of data, machine orders, is expected to have fallen from March. This data point is indicative of the capex spend in the 6 to 9 month horizon, so does not auger well.

As for the yen, if you follow along with Japanese data releases you'll be likely expecting not too much impact at all on the currency once the results are announced. As usual. Eyes on trade war headlines I suggest would be the (NSS … obvious) advice.