Australian January employment report is due on Thursday 20 February 2019 at 0030GMT

Earlier today we got the wages data from Oz:

A bit of a miss and wage growth stays on the slow side.

The jobs report is expected to show growth in the number of employed:

  • Employment Change: K expected 15.0K, prior 21.6K
  • Unemployment Rate: % expected 5.0%, prior 5.0%
  • Full Time Employment Change: K prior was -3K
  • Part Time Employment Change: K prior was 24.6K
  • Participation Rate: % expected 65.6%, prior was 65.6%

Previews via:


  • Our Jobs Index has moderated but is still pointing to a solid pace of employment growth. The annual pace of job ads recently turned negative just as some of the business surveys showed weaker employment conditions. But the low level of unemployment expectations suggests we are facing a moderation in employment, not a correction.
  • For January, +15k on employment, holding the participation rate flat, is enough to hold unemployment at 5.0%.

WPAC add on labour market slack (one of the factors holding back wage growth):

  • It is also worth noting that 2018 produced a -0.2ppt decline in the underemployment rate from Q1 to Q4. However, at 8.4% it is still a historically elevated level.


  • Markets will be highly focused on Australia's labour force data after RBA Governor Lowe placed significant importance on the unemployment rate as a potential trigger for rate cuts. Lowe said the cash rate could be lowered "[i]n the event of a sustained increase in the unemployment rate and a lack of further progress towards the inflation objective". The unemployment rate fell a sharp ½ppt over 2018 to 5% as domestic activity strengthened. Growth has now slowed and we expect further inroads into the jobless rate to be limited this year, with a slight tick up to 5.1% likely in January