According to the firm's research analyst, Bilal Hafeez

  • China only imports $190 bn of goods and services from the US
  • China will not be able to find reciprocal $250 bn worth of US imports to impose tariffs
  • No wonder why China is talking about 'qualitative' measures as well
  • Hard to gauge what they may be
  • Could include restrictions on US visas or investments into China
  • Possibility of also weakening the CNY to offset some tariffs

Some food for thought as the trade war rhetoric takes a bit of a breather now. Of note, the PBOC did weaken the yuan significantly in today's fixing. If such a move continues to persist, it'll make for a good conversation piece in the coming sessions.

USD/CNY fixing rate