September employment data due from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday local time (14 October 2015)

  • At 0030GMT

Employment Change:

  • expected +9.6K, prior +17.4K

Unemployment Rate:

  • expected 6.2%, prior 6.2%

Full Time Employment Change,

  • prior was +11.5K

Part Time Employment Change,

  • prior was +5.9K

Participation Rate,

  • expected is 65.0%, prior was 65.0%

Alrighty ... The employment report is a biggie, closely watched and market-mover.

The trend in employment growth has been strong, and as you can see form the headline 'expected' (employment change consensus expected to be up 9,600) that trend is being viewed as continuing.

A growing trend sits well with improving business conditions and confidence (last month's and this month's survey results from NAB), and rising job ads.

Looking further out than Thursday's figures, Westpac, for example, is expecting some softening in jobs growth:

Westpac's Jobs Index suggest total employment growth should peak at 2%yr then moderate. So we are tempted for forecast a negative but remember that Aug/Sept 2014 saw significant volatily associated with changes to the supplementary surveys. As such, we are going with a trend number.


I'll have more on the outlook for the employment report in the morning ahead of the release.