–Q4 GDP +0.4% q/q; -3.1% y/y; median +0.3% q/q; -3.3% y/y
LONDON (MNI) – Economic growth in the UK was revised higher in the
last quarter of 2009 as service sector output was revised up slightly,
according to figures released by National Statistics
Gross Domestic Product rose 0.4% on the quarter in Q4 and was down
3.1% on the year. This compared with the previous estimate of a rise of
0.3% on the quarter and was above the median forecast for no change to
the previous estimate.
Some members of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee
have said that they expected to see growth revised up in the fourth
quarter of 2009 as other survey evidence suggested a stronger bounceback
in growth from Q3.
In its February Inflation Report, the Bank of England’s “backcast”
showed it expected an upward revision to the Q4 GDP data with it rising
0.3% to 0.4% on the quarter.
The upward revision to growth was mainly due to a small upward
revision in services output. While to one decimal place the rise of 0.5%
on the quarter was unchanged from the previous estimate, the small
upward revision had been the main reason for the revised GDP growth
There were also small upward revisions to both construction and
agricultural output which were down 0.9% and 1.5% on the quarter
Industrial production rose 0.4% on the quarter while manufacturing
output was up 0.8%.
Revisions to the expenditure side of the economy were small with
household spending unrevised at 0.4% on the quarter. Government spending
was revised slightly lower to 1% from 1.2% while investment spending
fell 2.7% compared with the original estimate for a fall of 3.1%.
The household saving ratio dipped to 7% in Q4 from 8.4% in Q3, the
first drop since Q3 08.
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