National Institute of Economic and Social Research forecasts for the UK economy:

  • Estimates UK GDP growth +1.7% (vs. November forecast of +1.4% & August 2016 forecast at +1%)
  • +1.9% in 2018
  • Sees UK CPI 3.3% in 2017
  • Expects the first Bank of England rate hike in mid-2019
  • Sees UK current account in surplus in 2019, helped by fall in value of sterling


  • Resilient response to last year's Brexit vote
  • Growth is still likely to be a lot weaker than if the country had decided to stay in the European Union (Before June's referendum, NIESR's forecast for British growth in 2017 stood at 2.7%)
  • Expect consumers to be pinched by weaker sterling and higher prices this year
  • But gross domestic product for 2017 would be helped by weaker imports and a smaller positive contribution from higher exports

NIESR economist Simon Kirby

  • "These are not necessarily promising figures"
  • "This is not closing the output gap, even though on the face of it you might think these figures look reasonable."

Adds Reuters:

  • NIESR has progressively revised up its short-term estimates for British economic growth since the referendum, thanks in large part to consumers who kept on spending

Via Reuters