A summary of GDP updated projections from Australia's 4 largest banks.
ANZ
- recession is probably over in the sense that we expect GDP to grow after the June quarter
- there is risk around this outlook, December quarter is still very uncertain
- ANZ's forecast for a small positive assumes that the government delivers some direct income support that boosts spending. But none of the whispers about the budget so far talk about this.
CBA:
- forecast GDP +2% in the September quarter (previous was 0%)
- December quarter forecast +1.8%
NAB
- September quarter a small positive GDP
- December quarter likely -0.7%
Westpac
- +1.8% for the September quarter
- +2.2% for December quarter
