UMich consumer sentiment survey for October

UMich consumer sentiment survey for October
  • Prior was 72.8
  • Current conditions 77.9 vs 80.1 prior
  • Expectations 67.2 vs 68.1 prior
  • 1-year inflation 4.8% vs 4.6% prior
  • 5-10 year inflation 2.8% vs 3.0% prior

As today's retail sales report showed, this data point has a terrible recent track record of tracking the consumer, and it's long term record isn't much better. There was a time when this was top-tier data but it's quickly falling into irrelevancy aside from the inflation expectations numbers.

It's a mixed bag on the inflation side with one-year expectations ticking even higher while longer term expectations dipped. The Fed's more likely to pay attention to those longer numbers.