JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic:

  • the downside surprise in the Q1 GDP data, combined with the upside surprise on inflation is a challenge to those holding a "soft landing view" in the market
  • says lower growth and higher inflation is a situation that points the way to stagflation, and the market is not heeding it
  • "While the worry for risk markets is overheating that jeopardizes rate cutting, in contrast to the overheating story, the recent GDP print heads in a stagflationary direction relative to market expectations"
  • analysts at JPM add they are "not overly impressed" so far this earnings season (pointing out that of the S&P 500 companies having reported, 75% are beating EPS estimates, but only 59% are topping revenue estimates, slipping below the 63% average)