Morgan Stanley expect 4.8% GDP growth in China in 2024 (MS were at 4.2% coming into 2024)
- see better-than-expected exports and manufacturing activity
- strength of exports
- sees little chance of additional easing at upcoming political meetings
Goldman Sachs expects 5.0% (from previously at 4.8%)
- "For 2024, the government will likely achieve its goal of 'around 5%' real GDP growth. In the medium term, the prolonged property downturn and increased trade barriers targeting Chinese exports should pull growth back to the around 4% trend that we estimate,"
