- Dec CPI ex-food and energy unrevised at +0.3%
- November +0.2% vs +0.1%
- October +0.1% from unchanged
- Q4 core CPI unrevised at a 3.3% annualized increase
- Core six-month annualized CPI down to 3.0% from 3.3% (this is a key metric for the Fed)
This US dollar is initially lower on the CPI revisions, some of which is a sigh of relief that revisions weren't higher like last year.
As a reminder, Powell highlighted these changes as important ones that the Fed would be closely watching:
One piece of data I will be watching closely is the scheduled revisions to CPI inflation due next month. Recall that a year ago, when it looked like inflation was coming down quickly, the annual update to the seasonal factors erased those gains. In mid-February, we will get the January CPI report and revisions for 2023, potentially changing the picture on inflation. My hope is that the revisions confirm the progress we have seen, but good policy is based on data and not hope.
The January CPI report is due next Thursday, current estimates are for a drop in the y/y reading to 2.9% from 3.4% in large part because of the +0.5% m/m reading from Jan 2023 is rolling off.
There is the pre-revision y/y CPI chart.
US CPI yy
Here is the pre-revision m/m chart:
US CPI mm
