US nonfarm payrolls March 2024 chart
US nonfarm payrolls
  • Prior was +272K (revised to +218K)

Details of the May 2024 jobs report:

  • Two-month net revision -111K vs -15K prior
  • Unemployment rate 4.1% vs 4.0% expected (4.054% unrounded)
  • Prior unemployment rate 4.0%
  • Participation rate 62.6% vs 62.5% prior
  • U6 underemployment rate 7.4% vs 7.4% prior
  • Average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% expected
  • Prior avg hourly earnings +0.4% m/m
  • Average hourly earnings +3.9% y/y vs +3.9% expected
  • Average weekly hours 34.3 vs 34.3 expected
  • Change in private payrolls +136K vs +190K expected
  • Change in manufacturing payrolls -8K vs +6K expected
  • Household survey +116K vs -408K prior
  • Government jobs +70K vs +43K prior
  • Full time -28K
  • Part time +50K

Fed pricing for year end before the report was for 49 bps of easing with an 80% chance of a Sept cut. USD/JPY was trading at 160.68 ahead of the data.

Afterwards, pricing has ticked up to 50 bps but Sept odds are unchanged. USD/JPY has been all over the place, rising, the falling to 160.33 and now higher at 161.07.

I certainly take it as a dovish report and highlighted that private payrolls were the spot to watch before the data.