Earlier preview is here:

July non-farm payrolls preview: ADP vs ISM edition

The data is due at 1230 GMT, which is 0830 US Eastern time.

us July non farm payroll 04 August 2023

Deutsche Bank:

  • While our economists expect some payback from state and local government education hiring for the headline print (+175k forecast, consensus at +200k vs. +209k previously), they expect a slight pick up in private (+175k vs. +149k) payrolls inline with consensus. This would be below the three-month averages for headline (+244k) and private (+196k) payrolls gains.
  • Watch out for average hourly earnings and hours worked as well.


  • Initial jobless claims eased over the July survey reference period, suggesting that a healthy 185K jobs could have been created in the US. That’s in line with the climb in participation seen lately in the prime-age working group, which coincides with a drawdown of excess savings. Still strong demand for workers, as evidenced by elevated job openings, suggests that new labor force entrants are being absorbed quickly into vacant positions.
  • The unemployment rate could have remained steady at 3.6%, while a rise in participation also would have left more room for hiring without putting additional upwards pressure on wages, which likely slowed to 0.3% MoM. We’re slightly lower than the consensus on hiring which could result in bond yields falling.


  • Federal Reserve Chair Powell made it very clear that the FOMC is extremely data-dependent as it plots the long path ahead toward the next decision on September 20th. ... Key will be Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report and wages for the month of July. I’ve gone with a guesstimated gain of 250k and an unchanged unemployment rate of 3.6% with wage growth pegged at another 0.4% m/m SA nonannualized gain. That should keep trend wage growth running at a healthy clip that is expected to remain above the rate of inflation and drive real wage gains