The pair is only trading in a 9 pips range so far today

EUR/USD H1 10-12

The situation is no different to yesterday as price action continues to be caught in between both key hourly moving averages today. Price is also pivoting around the 100-day moving average @ 1.1065 with little conviction to go running just yet.

It's all about the anticipation right now as we look towards the key risk events later in the week. The Fed and the ECB will be up to bat but I don't expect either to surprise markets as they should just repeat the current undertone as we close out the year.

Instead, the dollar may be more reactive to changes in the risk mood. As such, US-China trade developments may provide more of a catalyst for the pair to go in search of a near-term break during the week.

For any upside move, look towards a break above 1.1100 to solidify the more near-term bullish momentum. Meanwhile, a drop below the 200-hour MA (blue line) should precipitate a move back towards 1.1000 eventually with key support lying near 1.0981-00 as well.

The worst-case scenario for markets is that we see Trump steer clear of the 15 December tariffs but continue to send a stern message that they could be back on the table if China fails to offer much in return down the road.

That would leave us with this "will they, won't they?" situation on the "Phase One" deal for many more weeks to come. As such, risk trades may take some heart in that but the can being kicked down the road isn't exactly something to shout about.