EUR/USD touches 1.1983, at the highs for the day now

EUR/USD D1 30-11

The pair is close to testing the key psychological handle once again, which helped to limit gains back at the start of September trading (the high then touched 1.2011).

From a technical perspective, it has been tough to argue with the shove higher after a firm break above 1.1900 but we're starting to enter into ECB jawboning territory again; although they are seemingly less concerned by the moves this time around.

It may be that they are satisfied with stalling the gradual ascend for long enough, or perhaps they are biding their time before stepping back in with more verbal sounding.

In any case, if EUR/USD firmly breaks 1.2000, there's a clear path for the pair to roam between that and 1.2500 next as we look towards next year.

As things stand, Deutsche Bank is saying that the conditions are in place for the pair to breach 1.2000 and keep above that before the year-end.

The firm argues that CFTC positioning is no longer at the extreme, with leveraged longs close to flat and that the virus wave in Europe is peaking as opposed to surging. Adding that European equity inflows are more definitively picking up.

"We have increased confidence on the positive cyclical outlook, which should favour a weaker dollar across the board. We think EUR/USD will convincingly break 1.20 before the end of the year and would stay long."