It is December. We must remember.
The GBPUSD finding buyers on dips against 100 hour MA
The GBPUSD has been in it’s own consolidation range. On the top, the 1.5734-40 has attracted sellers. On the downside, the 1.5616-28 has been an area where traders have used as support. Yes, there have been extensions above these extremes – today the pair moved above the upper extreme . However, when the price could not extend to the high for December at 1.57624, back down it went…
Another support area that the market has been using this week as a risk defining level is the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above). The last three corrective lows on the hourly chart have used the level to lean against (risk area with stops likely below now). The 200 hour MA (green line in the chart above) was also held on the last low in the NY session.
Seeing the consolidation. Recognizing the choppy action that this chart shows….it is hard to say, we are going higher or we are going lower. I can say, the price is lower on the day (it was higher yesterday). The close from yesterday was near the highs at 1.5714. The 61.8% of the move down from November 27 high to the low in December is at 1.57159. On the daily chart there is the 61.8% retracement of a move up from the 2013 low at 1.57203. I talked about this area as resistance yesterday see: GBPUSD keeps the bid, but resistance keeps a lid on it . That story remains the same today at that area.
The change in the story today is that yesterday we were above the 50% level at the 1.56824 and we saw that level hold in the NY session (see the 1.56824 level in the chart above). Over the last 5 or so hours, the price is trading above and below it. Talk about being neutral. Right in the middle. No one is taking control. I guess, I can flip a coin and hope for a move below the 200 and 100 hour MA or a move above the 1.5715-20 area above. Those are the risk defining levels. Who wins, the buyers or the sellers, is the tough one.
Then again, it is December. We must remember.
I would be welcome to any thoughts – Fundamental? Technical? Your choice. ; )
