USDCAD in the midst of volatile up and down market

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | usdcad

Moves lower and higher and back down again

The USDCAD has been on a volatile roller coaster ride in trading today. The initial move was sharply to the downside. The pair broke below recent swing lows between 1.3033 and 1.30443 on it's way to the low for the day at 1.30101.

Moves lower and higher and back down again
The pair then reversed back higher, getting above the aforementioned swing low area and raced up to test its 200 hour moving average at 1.30890. 

The last 1-2 hours has seen the price will back to the downside and retest the high of the swing levels at 1.30443.  A move into that area - and below - would give more the technical bias to the sellers.  Hold support, and the battle between the 100 hour moving average at 1.30717 and the swing area is on.  

Until the failed break lower today, the USDCAD has been mired in an up and down trading range between 1.3033 on the downside and 1.31235 on the topside (about 120 pips). That range has confined the pair over the last 6 trading days.  The break lower today, gave the sellers their shot. They failed.  That may give patient dip buyers the advantage. However, a break below the 1.3033 level would be the limit for dip buying enthusiasts.     

Helping the loonies bullishness (lower USDCAD) is that WTI crude oil futures today are up $1.70 or 3.9% of $44.73. The prices also trading at the highest level since March 2020. The August high at $44.59 for the January contract was broken today and is a close support level currently. It might take a reversal of the crude oil surge to help put a bottom in.  The good news is risk is defined and limited.  

January crude oil

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