GBP/USD

The GBP/USD chart is a interesting one. Justin reported earlier that the majority of economists interviewed by Bloomberg still see the Bank of England raising interest rates in 2018. 55% of those see a rate hike by August. The Bank of England's Monetary Policy meet today at 1200BST and you can read all the previews of that meeting here. The most likely outcome is that the Bank of England announce that they are remaining on hold and the vote count remains the same. However, the market will be watching carefully for any hints of a rate hike expected in August. If the Bank of England are dovish in their minutes then the GBP/USD has plenty of space to fall. You can read the minutes here from the Bank of England when they are released. The Federal reserve is on a tightening cycle, so there is a fundamental driver for USD strength. GBP/USD may be a perfect short to start looking for today.

Zooming out and taking a look at the GBP/USD weekly chart shows that price has some decent space to fall. Today's MPC minutes is likely to set the new term direction of the GBP and opportunities to short GBP/USD on a dovish MPC should be embraced.

Other charts to watch, with major news out for them today, are GBP/CAD and GBP/CHF. The SNB meets today at 0830BST and they are expected to maintain their twin mandates of low interest rates and FX intervention. Check out Justin's article on three things to watch at that meeting.CAD is likely to be affected by the OPEC agreement that is being made today. There has been lots of chatter about what the production increase is actually going to be and the market is currently settled with expectations around 600-800K barrels a day. Watch the release because that figure is not settled yet and any significant deviation from that number is going to set Oil's direction for the next couple of weeks at least. As CAD is correlated so closely with Oil, impact in the Oil market will filter through to CAD.(especially USD/CAD as Canada export 99% of their oil to the US).

Risks to trade to consider: CHF being bought on risk 'off' markets if Trump's trade war fears re-emerge (currently receded). CAD being affected by NAFTA headlines, OPEC meeting and Carney to speak later today at 2115BST.