EURUSD seller in control on all
The EURUSD is working on the 4th day in a row to the downside (see daily chart below). The move lower today has cracked below a lower trendline and 1.18987 and the 61.8% retracement and 1.18870. It would take a move above those two levels in order to turn the bias back to the upside for the EURUSD on this chart.
On the downside, the 200 day moving average at 1.18127 is in the sites of traders on further weakness. The price of the EURUSD is not traded below its 200 day moving average since May 2020 (that's a long time ago). On the 1st test, I would expect the buyers to lean (just because its been so long).
Drilling to the hourly chart, the pair on Friday tumbled below swing lows going back to February 4 of February 5 near the 1.19516 area. With the current low at 1.1858, that area is also near the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the Wednesday high from last week (it will move lower if the selling continues today). Bearish. On the downside, the next target comes in against day lower trend line at 1.1840. The low today has reached 1.1858. Bears in control .
Note: the bearishness seen over the last 4 days started after the price corrected up between the 100 and 200 hour moving averages on Wednesday (blue and green lines). The traders subsequently started to use the 100 hour moving average as resistance (see chart below). The fall below the 100 day moving average on Thursday increased the bearish bias, and the price has been trending lower since that key break.
Bears remain firmly in control on the hourly chart.
Finally, drilling to the 5 minutes chart, the best chance to tilt the bias a more to the upside would become if the price were to move above the 50% retracement of the last leg down at 1.1876 and then the falling 100 bar moving average at 1.1879 (and moving lower).
Earlier today, the price fell below both the 100 and 200 bar moving averages in the Asian session and then retested those moving averages later - finding sellers. The momentum has increased to the downside since then, but is showing some slowing of the intraday trend on the break back above the downward sloping trendline. If the price can now get back above the 100 bar moving average (and stay above), the bias would shift marginally to the upside intraday and traders would start looking toward the falling 200 bar moving average (green line) that is near 1.18977 currently. Get above that and buyers take more control.
So overall, the three time frames (intraday, intermediate, and longer-term) are all showing a bearish bias. The 5 minutes chart has the best chance of tilting the bias a little more to the upside, but there work to do if the buyers are to wrestle more control away from the sellers on all the major time frames.
