![Daily BTC chart](https://images.forexlive.com/images/Daily%20BTC%20chart_id_d6b503bb-7e8b-4620-8e48-fd8dc363d3e4_original.jpg)
It's beginning to dawn on some people that spot ETFs won't be a white knight for the bitcoin market.
We're midway through the fourth day of bitcoin ETF trading and the results aren't anywhere near the +$2 billion the bitcoin bulls were touting in the first 48 hours. The path to a net +$15 billion by year-end or the $100 billion touted by Standard Chartered has considerably dimmed as well.
![Pomp aum estimate](https://images.forexlive.com/images/Pomp%20aum%20estimate_id_ba48e1a6-4183-4e86-915f-fcd9fdf2e55a_original.jpg)
There are people who want to argue that these ETFs are a great triumph because they are better than the hundreds of ETFs launched annually that are dead-on-arrival but that's not the bar for success is high in light of a rally in BTC from $28K to $49K on the ETF hype.
So far, the only trade has been money cycling out of the high-fee GBTC and futures-based BITO into the new lower fee ETFs. Net of GBTC, here are the inflows:
- Day 1 +625.8m
- Day 2 +193.1m
- Day 3 -81.0m
So just three days in we're already at net outflows and that doesn't even include BITO, whose AUM is down around $300m.
For instance, ARKK itself sold its BITO holdings to buy its own ETF yesterday. That flatters its own ETFs performance but it also masks the lack of real demand.
![ARKW](https://images.forexlive.com/images/ARKW_id_a9c253e4-1d32-4af4-905c-28f9944c493d_original.jpg)
What's insane to me is that no one in the bitcoin space will call it what it is. There is such an echo-chamber built up around the space that there's no room for rational analysis.
The thing is, people are getting hurt here by those touting some kind of great success from $600m dollars into an $800 billion market. Others are shamelessly extrapolating inflows from the first two days of trading to infinity to make a bullish case. That's ridiculous as the long history of modern ETF launches shows that the first two days are like the weekend box office of a movie.
I don't you need to look beyond volumes to paint a more-accurate picture:
![Volumes in Blackrocks IBIT ETF](https://images.forexlive.com/images/Volumes%20in%20Blackrocks%20IBIT%20ETF_id_2dafcafb-a339-435a-b02d-8f558d280c08_original.jpg)
Now maybe the caveat here is that price has been falling so inflows aren't happening. That's fine, they will come at some point but I just don't see a path to $100B in net AUM here.
![flows](https://images.forexlive.com/images/flows_id_0cc155f6-fce8-4c07-ad1b-bd5753c34076_original.jpg)