JPM in a crypto note, looking for a lower BTC price once bitcoin-halving-induced euphoria subsides after April. In brief:

  • the halving event will reduce Bitcoin miners' rewards from currently 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC
  • this will negatively impact miners' profitability
  • will lead to a higher bitcoin production cost, and the bitcoin production cost influences its price
  • "The bitcoin production cost has empirically acted as a lower bound for bitcoin prices. The central point of our estimated production cost range stands at $26,500 currently, which would mechanically double post halving event to $53,000."
  • is a possibility of a 20% decline in the Bitcoin network's hashrate post halving,
  • mainly because of less efficient rigs exiting mining operations due to reduced profitability
  • which would lower the central point of the estimated production cost range to $42,000, based on an electricity cost
Daily candles BTC USD 01 March 2024 2