National CPI y/y for June, 3.6%

  • expected 3.5%, prior was 3.7%

National CPI y/y excluding Fresh Food for June, 3.3% (the ‘core‘ inflation figure)

  • expected 3.3%, prior was 3.4%

National CPI excluding Food, Energy y/y for June, 2.3% (the ‘core-core’ inflation figure)

  • expected 2.3%, prior was 2.2%

Tokyo CPI y/y for July, 2.8%

  • expected 2.8%, prior was 3.0%

Tokyo CPI excluding Fresh Food y/y for July, 2.8%

  • expected 2.7%, prior was 2.8%

Tokyo CPI excluding Food, Energy y/y for July, 2.1%

  • expected 2.0%, prior was 2.0%

Note – The Bank of Japan has estimated that the sales tax hike – to 8 percent from 5 percent on April 1 – added 1.7 percentage points to the annual consumer inflation rate in April, and 2.0 points from the following month. So, the numbers are not as strong as they appear. This lowers the ‘headline rate’ from 3.6% (subtract 2%) to 1.6%, compared with 1.7% for May (3.7% – 2.0%). The BOJ has been expecting a slight fall in the rate, and that’s what they’re getting.