The GBPUSD has had a roller-coaster ride of it in trading today. BOE’s Carney sent the price screaming to the upside on comments about 2015 1Q tightening. Perhaps fear from the Scotland vote, sent the price rotating lower. IN the last hour of so of trading, new lows were made, but failed on that break. The pair is now trying to move back higher.
GBPUSD shows the up and down volatility. Below MA and midpoint now. Moves below 1.6083 failed.
Some current facts:
The high is 1.61547.
The low is 1.60579
The close from yesterday was 1.6102
The midpoint of the day is 1.61063
With the current price at 1.60875, that price stands below the close from yesterday and midpoint of the range (bearish). If you look at the 5 minute chart, we are also below the 100 and 200 bar MAs at 1.6101 and 1.6095 respectively (bearish). On the bulls side, is the failure below the low was a pretty quick rejection of the downside. Buyers showed up.
So there is a little of something for everyone.
What are other chart time frames showing?
If I were to go out – not to the daily – but to the weekly chart (see chart below), the 100 week MA (blue line in the chart below) currently comes in at 1.6083 (for the week – it won’t change until next Monday). The price today fell below that line on two separate occasions (with momentum). One was in the Asian session, and the second was just in the last hour of trading (on the failed break to new lows – see red areas in the 5 minute chart above). In between those two falls (the red areas), there were two other times when the price more or less found support buyers against the 1.6083 level (see 5 minute chart above).
So there is a mini battle about to be staged as the NY afternoon session moves on. Does the 100 week MA line rule and the price rotate higher – getting above the aforementioned intraday resistance levels (like the 50%, 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute, and close from yesterday)? OR does the price fall back below the 1.6083 level and keep the selling pressure on the pair (and the bears in control heading into the new trading day)?
The market is quiet enough to slow play the move, but from what I see in the 5 minute chart, it seems like “the market” is aware of the level. So we should move away from it soon.
The GBPUSD weekly chart shows the 100 week MA at the 1.6083 level. The price has moved below that MA today. but fall could not be maintained.
