I posted earlier thoughts from ASB on what to expect from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand

A couple (+1) of quickies now.


  • RBNZ (Wednesday) may struggle to maintain its neutral policy tone, leading to near-term NZD potential downside.
  • We re-iterate our existing recommendation … long AUDNZD into this week's RBNZ


  • RBNZ to leave the OCR unchanged at 1.75%
  • Our economists also expect the RBNZ to repeat the key messages from the February MPS that the OCR will remain unchanged through 2019 and 2020 and that the next (move)could be 'up or down'.
  • We still see upside in NZD as the market remains too dovishly priced relative to the RBNZ's tone and as domestic fundamentals remain resilient.


  • RBNZ is widely expected to retain the OCR at 1.75%
  • And pending a full review of the economic outlook at the subsequent Monetary Policy Statement meeting in May - crucially also the first review in which policy will be set by a new Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), rather than by the Governor alone - it seems likely that the short statement accompanying this week's decision will maintain a neutral tone.