ECB: There are some indications of a mild increase in core inflation

Author: Justin Low | Category: Central Banks

ECB releases the account of its December monetary policy meeting

  • There had been solid upward movement in underlying inflation, excl. holiday prices
  • Data pointing to weak but stabilising growth dynamics
  • Geopolitical tensions not conducive to lowering uncertainty
  • But sentiment has improved over receding global trade tensions
  • Industry slump may bottom out before creating spillover
  • Stimulus impact in latest outlook rather conservative
  • Must better understand reasons for weak inflation
  • Policy could be adjusted to reduce unwanted side effects
  • Must be vigilant on efficacy of policy measures
The remarks on growth and inflation are a bit more upbeat and that has helped the euro get a bit more of a lift on the session. EUR/USD has moved up to a high of 1.1173 from around 1.1155 before the minutes were released.

The minutes did not give any clues about the upcoming strategy review though, with the ECB noting that:

"Finally, it was also suggested that some broad guidance be communicated about the forthcoming strategy review, including the likely timeline, although it was generally seen as advisable to refrain from public discussions on the strategy prior to the envisaged launch of the review by the Governing Council early in 2020."
The full minutes can be found here.

Euro bulls can take heart in the slightly more upbeat view by the ECB but I don't think this changes things all too much in the bigger picture. They're not going to take stimulus off the table and unless economic conditions greatly improve, the status quo remains.

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