More from Kaplan
- Says he's watching the shape of the yield curve, would not want to inadvertently invert
There is some talk on what's priced in for the Fed doing the rounds. A hike in June is a done deal at 97% but the focus is on the September and December meetings. The Sept odds are up to 68% and December is at 42% -- both up a couple points since retail sales.
The thinking is that markets might be getting ahead of themselves but I'm not so sure. The 'gradual' rhetoric is heavily embedded and the Fed is confident that growth is accelerating so I think September can move even higher. December is priced about right with so much time and data still to come.
