Lockhart’s speech is mostly a rehash of his earlier comments to Bloomberg TV:
- Hiring trends positive but large amount of part-time work means Fed employment target rate not in sight
- Little systemic risk from bullish markets and low volatility
- No guarantee recent uptick in inflation is sustainable or means economy is close to Fed’s target
- Rate hike likely in H2 2015
The full text of the speech is on the Atlanta Fed’s website.
I don’t believe the recent broad-based uptick of inflation measures necessarily portends that inflation is going to get out of hand. Inflation expectations remain well-anchored. There is no sign that price makers, or the general public, anticipate a break with the experience of price stability the country has enjoyed for more than two decades.
…
I am still prepared to believe that the first-quarter contraction was an anomaly attributable substantially to weather, an inventory adjustment, health care spending, and exports. However, if there were temporary or unusual factors at work depressing the first quarter, then it is reasonable to expect that the lifting of those factors provided a bump in the numbers in the second quarter that may also have been transitory.
