Coming up at 1900GMT, Federal Open Market Committee minutes

ICYMI, earlier:

Nomura:

  • We expect more clarity regarding the FOMC's plans for balance sheet normalization from the minutes of the January FOMC meeting. The minutes from the two preceding meetings - November and December - included important sections on the balance sheet. We believe the corresponding section of the January minutes will confirm the Committee's plans to end balance sheet normalization by end-2019.
  • The Committee has been clear that rates are on hold for the time being. A key issue is the set of circumstances that would drive the FOMC to raise rates. In his post-meeting press conference Chair Powell suggested that clear evidence of upside pressure on inflation was a necessary condition for raising rates. It will also be interesting to see if there was discussion of what would drive the Committee to lower interest rates.