NAB on the RBA - what to watch for a potential cash rate cut in July.

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: Central Banks

I've posted comments on the AUD and RBA from 3 of Australia's 'big four' domestic banks:

WPAC
ANZ
CBA
Rounding it up with NAB, in brief:

On Q1 GDP:
  • data are slightly below (RBA) May forecast profile for growth,
  • but recent comments indicate that it remains more focused on the unemployment rate, which has risen over the past couple of months
  • After two large downgrades to its forecasts, in February and May, the RBA will likely be relieved not to make another major change to its growth outlook

We continue to forecast a second 25bp cut to the cash rate in August
  • a rise in unemployment (next data for this is is due Thursday 13th June) would increase risk of an earlier July cut



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